Imagining the Internet (Elon/Pew Survey)

The Elon University/Pew Foundation 2008 survey "Imagining the Internet"has been released and can be found at: http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/about.xhtml.

This is afascinating look at what people expect from the future of the Internetand how we think about the ways our lives will be changed by futureinterconnectivity. Whether or not it is an accurate prediction of thefuture, it is a fascinating survey of where our thinking is today. The site contains 6000 pages and is rich with interesting information,ideas, and insights. Here's a reblog of the abstract with links.

Reblogged from http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/about.xhtml. Please go to the site itself for hundreds of fascinating links.

IMAGINING THE INTERNET: A HISTORY AND A FORECAST

The links on this page lead to thousands of forecasts about the networked future

This eight-part 2008 survey of technology experts and social analystsinspired thousands of intriguing predictive statements tied to eightcompelling question sets about the state of things in 2020. Expertswere asked what devices we will use to access the Internet and how wewill connect, if social tolerance will be improved thanks to new waysof connection, if our work and home lives will be better, and how muchinfluence virtual reality and augmented reality will have.

To see the report of results, click here to download a PDF of the official Pew Internet & American Life report on the 2008 Predictions Survey: http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/predictions/2008_survey.pdf. More-detailed content is available on this site at the links below.

Inthis web-based survey, 578 leading Internet activists, builders, andcommentators and 618 additional stakeholders (1,196 respondents) wereasked to assess thought-provoking proposed scenarios for the year 2020.The point of this non-random survey was to add focused input to theongoing conversation about the future of the Internet; respondents'written elaborations?the qualitative results?were the most valuable data gathered by the study. Thuswe have built this site with links to thousands of answers, with ourthanks to the survey participants for contributing to this repositoryof thoughtful projective data.

Among the quantitative results from the expert group:

• Some 77% said the mobile computing device (the smartphone) with more significant computing power will be 2020's primary global Internet-connection platform.
• 64% favored the idea that 2020 user interfaces will offer advanced touch, talk and typing options and some added a fourth "T" - think.
• Nearly four out of five respondents (78%) said the original Internet architecture will not be completely replaced by a next-generation 'net by 2020.
• Three out of five respondents (60%) disagreed with the idea that legislatures, courts, the technology industry, and media companies will exercise effective intellectual property control by 2020.
• A majority?56%?agreed that in 2020 "few lines (will) divide professional from personal time, and that's OK."
• 56% said while Web 2.0 is bringing some people closer, social tolerance will not be heightened by our new connections
• 45% agreed and 44% disagreed with the notion that the greater transparency of people and institutions afforded by the Internet will heighten individual integrity and forgiveness.
• More than half (55%) agreed that many lives will be touched in 2020 by virtual worlds, mirror worlds, and augmented reality, while 45% disagreed or did not answer the question.

12 more links: To read report content with added supplemental information not contained in the official report?includinga large selection of the thousands of fascinating written responses byInternet stakeholders to each of the survey's scenarios?lookat the listing below and click on a topic of interest to you. Includedare biographies of some respondents and the news release explainingthis project. All scenarios are set in 2020.

Scenario One: The evolution of mobile Internet communications
Survey participants were asked to respond to the following scenario:The mobile phone is the primary connection tool for most people in theworld. In 2020, while "one laptop per child" and other initiatives tobring networked digital communications to everyone are successful onmany levels, the mobile phone?now with significant computing power?isthe primary Internet connection and the only one for a majority of thepeople across the world, providing information in a portable,well-connected form at a relatively low price. Telephony is offeredunder a set of universal standards and protocols accepted by mostoperators internationally, making for reasonably effortless movementfrom one part of the world to another. At this point, the "bottom"three-quarters of the world's population account for at least 50% ofall people with Internet access?up from 30% in 2007.

Scenario Two: The Internet and the evolution of social tolerance
Survey participants were asked to respond to the following scenario:Social tolerance has advanced significantly due in great part to theInternet. In 2020, people are more tolerant than they are today, thanksto wider exposure to others and their views that has been brought aboutby the Internet and other information and communication technologies.The greater tolerance shows up in several metrics, including declininglevels of violence, lower levels of sectarian strife, and reducedincidence of overt acts of bigotry and hate crimes.

Scenario Three: The evolution of IP law and copyright protection
Survey participants were asked to respond to the following scenario: Contentcontrol through copyright-protection technology dominates. In 2020,strict content controls are in place thanks to the efforts oflegislatures, courts, the technology industry, and media companies.Those who use copyrighted materials are automatically billed by contentowners, and Internet service providers automatically notify authoritieswhen they identify clients who try to subvert this system. Protestersrarely prevail when they make claims that this interferes with freespeech and stifles innovation.

Scenario Four: The evolution of privacy, transparency, integrity, and forgiveness
Survey participants were asked to respond to the following scenario:Transparency heightens individual integrity and forgiveness. In 2020,people are even more open to sharing personal information, opinions,and emotions than they are now. The public?s notion of privacy haschanged. People are generally comfortable exchanging the benefits ofanonymity for the benefits they perceive in the data being shared byother people and organizations. As people?s lives have become moretransparent, they have become more responsible for their own actionsand more forgiving of the sometimes-unethical pasts of others. Being"outed" for some past indiscretion in a YouTube video or otherpervasive-media form no longer does as much damage as it did back inthe first decade of the 21st Century. Carefully investigated reputationcorrections and clarifications are a popular daily feature of majormedia outlets? online sites.

Scenario Five: The evolution of augmented reality and virtual reality Survey participants were asked to respond to the following scenario: Manylives are touched by the use of augmented reality or spent interactingin artificial spaces. In 2020, virtual worlds, mirror worlds, andaugmented reality are popular network formats, thanks to the rapidevolution of natural, intuitive technology interfaces and personalizedinformation overlays. To be fully connected, advanced organizations andindividuals must have a presence in the "metaverse" and/or the"geoWeb." Most well-equipped Internet users will spend some part oftheir waking hours?at work and at play?at least partially linked toaugmentations of the real world or alternate worlds. This lifestyleinvolves seamless transitions between artificial reality, virtualreality, and the status formerly known as "real life."

Scenario Six: The evolution of the Internet user interface
Survey participants were asked to respond to the following scenario:In 2020, the most commonly used communications appliances prominentlyfeature built-in voice-recognition. People have adjusted to hearingindividuals dictating information in public to their computing devices.In addition technologies based on touch feedback have been fullydeveloped, so, for instance, a small handheld Internet appliance allowsyou to display and use a full-size virtual keyboard on any flat surfacefor those moments when you would prefer not to talk aloud to yournetworked computer. It is common to see people "air-typing" as theyinterface with the projection of a networked keyboard visible only tothem.

Scenario Seven: The evolution of the architecture of the Internet Survey participants were asked to respond to the following scenario:Next-generation research will be used to improve the current Internet;it won?t replace it. In 2020, the original Internet architecture is inthe continuing process of refinement ? it hasn?t been replaced by acompletely new system. Research into network innovation, with help fromthe continued acceleration of technologies used to build, maintain,enhance, and enlarge the system, has yielded many improvements. Search,security, and reliability on the Internet are easier and more refined,but those who want to commit crimes and mischief are still able tocause trouble.

Scenario Eight: The evolving concept of time for work and leisure
Survey participants were asked to respond to the following scenario:Few lines divide professional time from personal time, and that?s OK.In 2020, well-connected knowledge workers in more-developed nationshave willingly eliminated the industrial-age boundaries between workhours and personal time. Outside of formally scheduled activities, workand play are seamlessly integrated in most of these workers? lives.This is a net-positive for people. They blend personal/professionalduties wherever they happen to be when they are called upon to performthem?from their homes, the gym, the mall, a library, and possibly eventheir company?s communal meeting space, which may exist in a newvirtual-reality format.

Research Directions: What do you want to know?
Survey participants were asked the following question:We consider these surveys to be a conversation with technology policymakers and leaders; we would like to know what you would like to knowabout the Internet and related technologies. What key researchquestions about the direction of technological change and about theimpact of the Internet would you like to see addressed by organizationssuch as the Pew Internet Project? What should we be measuring? Whatresearch questions should we address in future surveys of Internetexperts and leaders? Are there some critical uncertainties aboutInternet evolution in your field of expertise that we should positionourselves to monitor?

> Use this link to download the full report in PDF format.

> Use this link to read the 2008 Future of the Internet Survey news release in PDF format.

> Use this link to read brief biographies of hundreds of key survey respondents.

Participants in the surveywere presented with eight possible 2020 scenarios and asked to selectif they "mostly agree" or "mostly disagree" with each; this wasfollowed by a request for them to elaborate on their answers. Thescenarios ? woven from data collected in recent industry and researchreports and predictive public statements by leaders in science,technology, business, and politics ? were constructed with overlappingelements to spur discussion and an illumination of issues. Theagree-disagree aspects of the survey yielded useful quantitativenumbers; the respondents' elaborations attached to each answer yieldedsignificant qualitative information, adding many more predictions tothe Imagining the Internet site.